The Continuum of Debacles Affecting Pakistan’s Economy and People’s Health in the Year 2022
In the year 2022-the post-Covid19 era, the political government changed, an unprecedented heatwave and flood devastated the region, faltering economy took a sharp turn for the worse, an upsurge in domestic terrorism and escalated cross-border conflict with Afghanistan, all contributed to the country’s unfortunate trajectory.
Pakistan has never been a safe haven, nevertheless the past year has been particularly tumultuous.
In the fiscal year (FY) 2019–2020, Covid–19 had a significant impact on Pakistan’s economy. The nation experienced its first recession since the 1950s as real GDP fell by 0.47 percent. Pakistan, however, recovered quickly, with real GDP increasing 3.94 percent in FY2020–21.(1)The Asia Development Bank (ADB) anticipated that the economy will develop further and increase by 4 percent in real terms in the fiscal year 2021-22, provided that economic stimulus measures were put into place. Nonetheless, since the beginning of the new fiscal year 2022-2023, events have not transpired in accordance with the anticipations. Consumer spending is the engine that propels Pakistan’s economy, therefore when imports exceed exports, the trade deficit widens and the country’s foreign currency reserves decrease. That is how the first half of the current fiscal year unfolded.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) used foreign currency reserves to postpone the devaluation of the Pakistani rupee in 2022, yet this did cause a shortage of US dollar in circulation. Rupee’s decline and Pakistan’s ability to receive IMF aid were both exacerbated by the government shutdown and subsequent vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Imran Khan in April. By July’s end, the rupee had fallen in value by 15 percent, to over 240 per dollar, a record low. (2)
In August 2022, Pakistan’s trade imbalance widened to $3.53 billion (from $2.73 billion) in US dollars, a month-over-month increase of 28.89 percent. The Central Statistical Organization of Pakistan found that imports fell by 8.26 percent last year. . (2, 3) Since fewer goods were being brought into the country, fewer taxes were levied against the country’s foreign exchange reserves. (4)
The government of Pakistan intervened to prop up the local currency. The SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to increase the headline interest rate by 125 basis points (bps) to 15% following a meeting on July 7. The MPC also decided to offer export incentives. The SBP raised the rate by another 100 basis points (bps) on November 25 to a total of 16 percent as inflationary pressures “had shown to be greater and more persistent than projected.” Despite these efforts, the Pakistani rupee has not yet settled on a fair value against the US dollar. (2, 4)
Pakistan’s development goals and its capacity to reduce poverty were severely hampered by this year’s devastating heatwave and disastrous floods, both of which were caused by climate change. Thirty three (33) million people were affected by the floods, and more than 1730 individuals lost their lives, according to a news statement from the World Bank that was published on October 28, 2022. The spread of water-borne and vector-borne diseases accelerated as a result of the flood levels in many areas failed to recede, endangered the health of more than 8 million displaced people. Damages caused by flood are likely to exceed USD 14.9 billion, while economic losses are expected to exceed USD 15.2 billion, while resiliently rehabilitating and reconstructing infrastructure is estimated to cost at least $16.3 billion, in keeping with the World Bank’s estimates. (2) “The recent floods are expected to have a substantial negative impact on Pakistan’s economy and on the poor, mostly through the disruption of agricultural production,” said Najy Benhassine, the World Bank’s Country Director for Pakistan.
Numerous facets of life were affected by the flood. Use of polluted water put millions of Pakistanis at danger of developing infectious and vector-borne diseases. More than half of Pakistan’s vital cotton crop was wiped off in the flood, along with large quantities of wheat, rice, animals, and other food sources. People from the countryside flocked to Pakistan’s already overcrowded cities as the country’s healthcare, housing, food, and economic crises intensified. (5, 16)
U.N. and World Bank Crisis Mediators see the recent tragedy in Pakistan as emblematic of a global trend toward a dramatic increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters and extreme human poverty. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan has been one of the top 10 countries most affected by climate-related disasters over the previous two decades. In spite of the fact that Pakistan contributes less than 1% of global warming gases, it is ranked as the ninth most susceptible country by the Global Climate Risk Index. This is in line with findings from European Union studies. (6, 7)
A large number of people died this year due to covid-19, but that number is down dramatically from last year (18828 deaths in 2021, 1702 deaths in 2022 as of 22 December). (8) Covid-19 turned out to be more than just a health concern, as was the case everywhere else. It caused problems in public health, government, and the economy, as well as in people’s daily lives. Providing care for disorders unconnected to COVID was a major concern for Pakistan’s already shaky healthcare delivery system, which was plagued by a lack of health facilities and a gender imbalance in the healthcare workforce. Patients receiving routine immunizations, those receiving treatment for pregnant women and newborns, those with mental health concerns, and those with chronic diseases and comorbidities who require a steady supply of medication, all stand to lose the most. Both Dengue and CovidD-19 continued to consume a disproportionate share of the health sector’s manpower and infrastructure.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there have been 48,906 cases of dengue in Pakistan in 2021, with 183 fatalities. (9, 15) As of November 8th, 2022, there were 64,767
cases of dengue fever and 84 related fatalities. (10) In 2022, there was a sharp increase in the number of reported cases of hepatitis C, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and malaria, yet inefficient resource management meant that many people couldn’t get their hands on life-saving drugs. Paracetamol, a common fever medication, remained difficult for the government to make widely available. To appease the pharmaceutical business, drug regulators approved a price increase for paracetamol of more than 100%.
Health officials’ attention was distracted to the hidden appearance of post-flood diseases and the diversion of healthcare resources to emerging crises, which greatly slowed efforts toward proclaiming the country polio-free when 20 new cases were identified in the year 2022. (11, 12, 14) New cases of polio are only being reported in Pakistan and Afghanistan, thus the goal of a world without polio remains elusive. (12, 13, 16)
A tangled history of the Durand line, the international border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, is at the root of the recent outbreaks of violence on the western border and the attacks carried out by the Taliban in Afghanistan on security personnel and civilians in Pakistan. (17)
Long before the Afghan Taliban took control of Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan had begun building the fence along the 2,611 km border with Afghanistan in March 2017. Multiple sections of the fence were washed away by the rains and flood in Balochistan. When Pakistani forces tried to make the necessary repairs, they met with fierce resistance from the Afghan Taliban. Since Pakistan had previously made same attempts to halt any construction in Afghanistan’s border areas, this was a retaliatory measure. The Long-simmering but yet unresolved mistrust between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban and the proscribed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan has worsened border disputes and intensified domestic terrorism in Pakistan. (17)
To put a stop to this viscous cycle of ill fate and continuum of devastation and to restore order at the helms of affairs, we need strong and honest leadership from the top down, with a team of administrators and managers who not only have the requisite expertise but also have political and social will, dedication, and commitment.
References
- Sit, D. (2021, October 27). Post-Covid Prospects: Pakistan. Interview with Bilal Ahmad Butt, Consul General of Pakistan in Hong Kong. Retrieved December 21, 2022, from https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/ODg5OTk2OTM5#:~:text=Covid%E2%80%9119%20has%20had%20a,3.94%25%20in%20FY2020%E2%80%9121.
- Willing, N. (2022, December 09). Pakistani rupee forecast: Will Pkr get stronger in 2022? Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://capital.com/pkr-pakistani-rupee-forecast
- World Bank Group. (2022, October 28). Pakistan: Flood damages and economic losses over USD 30 billion and reconstruction needs over USD 16 billion – new assessment. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/28/pakistan-flood-damages-and-economic-losses-over-usd-30-billion-and-reconstruction-needs-over-usd-16-billion-new-assessme
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- Bank, W. (2022, November 11). Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report (November 2022) – Pakistan. Retrieved December 25, 2022, from https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-country-climate-and-development-report-november-2022
- (2022). Pakistan. Retrieved December 24, 2022, from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/pakistan/
- (2022, June 30). Pakistan: Dengue response – final report, Dref Operation N° MDRPK022 – Pakistan. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-dengue-response-final-report-dref-operation-ndeg-mdrpk022#:~:text=Islamabad%2C%2022%2C938%20dengue%20fever%20cases,were%20reported%20in%20the%20country.
- org. (2022, December 16). Unitedengue:Regional Dengue Situation. Retrieved December 20, 2022, from https://unitedengue.org/regionaldengue.html
- Polio: Global Eradication Initiative. (2022). This Week: Polio this week as of 20 December. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/this-week/
- Roatry: End Polio Now. (2022). Why more funds? Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://www.endpolio.org/why-more-funds?gclid=Cj0KCQiAwJWdBhCYARIsAJc4idANcmghFGE7nw7SKhkEmccD8xtYdWLiTge0EUmMwoCEaD4gb719wloaAkKCEALw_wcB
- World Bank Group. (2022, November 10). Pakistan urgently needs significant investments in climate resilience to secure its economy and reduce poverty: World Bank Pakistan Climate & Development Report. Retrieved December 24, 2022, from https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/11/10/pakistan-urgently-needs-significant-investments-in-climate-resilience-to-secure-its-economy-and-reduce-poverty
- (2022, November 11). Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report (November 2022) – Pakistan. Retrieved December 24, 2022, from https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-country-climate-and-development-report-november-2022
- Khan, U., & Azeem, S. (2022). The rising toll of dengue cases in Pakistan every year: An incipient crisis. Ann Med Surg (Lond), 76, 103549. doi:10.1016/j.amsu.2022.103549
- Khan, D. (2022, September 14). Pakistan floods: A health crisis of epic proportions. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/9/13/pakistan-floods-health-crisis-of-epic-proportions
- (2022). Health update on the post-flood situation in Pakistan. Retrieved December 24, 2022, from https://www.emro.who.int/pak/pakistan-news/health-update-on-the-post-flood-situation-in-pakistan.html
- Khan, T. (2022, December 22). Trouble in the west: What went wrong at the Chaman Border. Retrieved December 24, 2022, from https://www.dawn.com/news/1727165/trouble-in-the-west-what-went-wrong-at-the-chaman-border
Dr. Muhammad Daood
Email: daood1963@gmail.com
Senior faculty member at the Department of Community Medicine, Services Institute of Medical Sciences (SIMS) Lahore
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